At the World Economic Forum on Saturday, Bill Gates forecast the demise of television in five years with the increasing popularity and greater flexibility of online video. "I'm stunned how people aren't seeing that with TV, in five years from now, people will laugh at what we've had.." While not exactly an earth-shattering prediction, it is still brave to suggest that TV will be irrelevant. While there is certainly something of a benefit to be had in being able to choose viewing content on the internet, there is still a gap to be bridged between traditional television and online video. In addition to this, online content needs to mature before it can "take over" television, and Download Squad makes a good point in saying that a "convergence device" (read: something like the Apple TV) will be needed to really merge internet video and TV. But then again, there is also the issue of bandwidth. So, maybe it's not that simple... what do you think? What will become of television over the next five years?TV irrelevant in five years, says Gates
At the World Economic Forum on Saturday, Bill Gates forecast the demise of television in five years with the increasing popularity and greater flexibility of online video. "I'm stunned how people aren't seeing that with TV, in five years from now, people will laugh at what we've had.." While not exactly an earth-shattering prediction, it is still brave to suggest that TV will be irrelevant. While there is certainly something of a benefit to be had in being able to choose viewing content on the internet, there is still a gap to be bridged between traditional television and online video. In addition to this, online content needs to mature before it can "take over" television, and Download Squad makes a good point in saying that a "convergence device" (read: something like the Apple TV) will be needed to really merge internet video and TV. But then again, there is also the issue of bandwidth. So, maybe it's not that simple... what do you think? What will become of television over the next five years?Reader Comments
(Page 1)2. I think Bill is pretty a few years optimistic, but otherwise very much right. Once you've played a little with Democracy Player (http://www.getdemocracy.com/) or TV Tonic (http://www.tvtonic.com/), you start to get a sense of it. Since these are both RSS-based, you are just subscribing to a channel that downloads new content as it becomes available. At the same time, there are some sites that are making RSS feeds for grabbing TV shows, so you can automatically snag them, too.
I expect a tidal wave of change as people discover that video through their computer is more interesting and relevant than what they can get through broadcast.
Aaron
3. With comments like this I think Gates will be irrelevant in 5 years!
Posted at 1:28PM on Jan 29th 2007 by DB Lection
4. I think Mr. Gates is off the mark. An estimate of 10-to-20 years may be more realistic. Five? Not really.
But please keep it in perspective: this comes from the same man that 12 years ago predicted that the CD-Rom was going to be the "interactive medium of the future." Then along came the Internet boom to leave Bill Gates' prediction in the dustbin of history:
http://www.ew.com/ew/article/0,,300087,00.html
Posted at 3:42PM on Jan 29th 2007 by J.B. Soler
5. Until you can take that tv media and burn it to a DVD and totally disconnect the computer from the living room tv... it's never going to be dead. Us that read DV Guru and site like it can handle technology and the devices and backing up hard drives full of media but the general public can't and won't do that.. so they need to burn them to a disc. If they can even figure that out. Until then, tv will live on.
Posted at 6:20PM on Jan 29th 2007 by editblog
6. I think that what he really means is not that TV will be dead, but rather that TV will no longer be King.
Posted at 8:18PM on Jan 29th 2007 by Kevin at TasteTV
7. My friends who still watch TV generally have cable or satellite, and are paying $50-$100/month for the privilege. And even so-called free TV is so relentlessly commercial that I find it too costly to lease out my brain to the advertisers 40% of the viewing time.
As far as the infrastructure question goes, it's not that big of a step. More widespread use of BitTorrent-type peer-to-peer technology, as well as RSS media clients that download your favorite programming in the background obviate the problem. In fact, with a regular DSL connection, I grab hidef videocasts with Democracy Player (which actually includes a BitTorrent client).
If there's an obstacle to this vision, it's just a matter of hitting the critical mass of online content that makes people realize what a lacking state television is in. This will follow an arc much like blogging has. At first only of interest to a fringe of technical users, but now the biggest thing to hit the internet in the last couple years.
Posted at 8:19PM on Jan 29th 2007 by AaronT
8. Give a monkey a typewriter and eventually it will hit on a few word strings that by sheer coincidence seem to be intelligible. Re-read The Man's "Road Ahead" and the newspaper columns he used to sire once upon a time to see just how "visionary" this conjob really is.
Let's face it: he got lucky with DOS, parlayed it successfully into Windows and made a tonne of money. But he ain't no innovator, much less technoseer. And now that he is on the cusp of retirement, the poor fella's suddenly realised that his legacy amounts to, uhm, not much apart from monopolistic marketing savvy. And like an ageing dictator who realises that, actually, he's not beloved by his subjects, he's making a desperate attempt at sealing his significance as The uber-geek.
Heck, even this "prophecy" is not original: the fella's just taken AppleTV and extrapolated it to what he thinks is the logical conclusion while fervently hoping that he won't screw it up like he did with his tablet PC prediction.
Microsoft is a successful conglomerate, sure, but why anyone would think successful corporations must de facto be headed by a visionary is beyond me.
Posted at 2:56PM on Feb 5th 2007 by Roberto
9. Give a monkey a typewriter and eventually it will hit on a few word strings that by sheer coincidence seem to be intelligible. Re-read The Man's "Road Ahead" and the newspaper columns he used to sire once upon a time to see just how "visionary" this conjob really is.
Let's face it: he got lucky with DOS, parlayed it successfully into Windows and made a tonne of money. But he ain't no innovator, much less technoseer. And now that he is on the cusp of retirement, the poor fella's suddenly realised that his legacy amounts to, uhm, not much apart from monopolistic marketing savvy. And like an ageing dictator who realises that, actually, he's not beloved by his subjects, he's making a desperate attempt at sealing his significance as The uber-geek.
Heck, even this "prophecy" is not original: the fella's just taken AppleTV and extrapolated it to what he thinks is the logical conclusion while fervently hoping that he won't screw it up like he did with his tablet PC prediction.
Microsoft is a successful conglomerate, sure, but why anyone would think successful corporations must de facto be headed by a visionary is beyond me.
Posted at 2:10PM on Feb 5th 2007 by Mr. Roberto
10. http://www.wfitv.com provides a selection of the best broadband internet television channels. - Enjoy news, TV shows, movies, music, entertainment and sports. Broadband internet connection recommended.
Posted at 2:15AM on Mar 8th 2007 by thomas
11. With comments like this I think Gates will be irrelevant in 5 years!
HAHAHA,Guys you are very interesting!!
Posted at 3:10PM on Mar 21st 2007 by kazuya888
1. 20 years - yes. 5 years - no.
There are a few compression, brandwidth and then a massive infrastructure issue to be sorted out first.
Also, TV is free, that's going to be a tough nut to crack. The internet and cable is not, you have to at least pay for the connection.
Posted at 1:56PM on Jan 29th 2007 by Theodore McNeil